If industry reports are anything to go by, there’s good news in the air for screenwriters these days — that is, spec screenplay sales have almost tripled over the last couple of years.
There was a period of time in the 1990s and 2000s when spec screenplay sales were through the roof.
Some of you might recall Shane Black selling The Last Boy Scout for a then unheard-of $1.75 million. This was followed by Joe Eszterhas landing a cool $3 million for Basic Instinct (a screenplay he said took him only 13 days to write).
If you think $3 million is obscene, Eszterhas went on to sell a two-page outline for another script for $2.5 million. Eszterhas even claims to have sold another pitch to a movie producer written on a cocktail napkin.
Those were heady days and the spec script in Hollywood was king. I remember when I first started working as an agent, spec scripts were sent out on a Monday and by the Friday, after a furious bidding war had taken place, the numbers were in and a script was invariably sold for a high six figure number.
Records for spec screenplays continued to rise. Shane Black netted $4 million for the screenplay The Long Kiss Goodnight. This was record was smashed in 2004, when the spec screenplay for the movie The Long Kiss Goodnight sold for $5 million big ones.
Then around 2008, the bubble burst. Some blame the writer’s strike of 2007. While others blame other more sinister forces.
There’s no doubt that the 2007 writer’s strike did shake things up. Vanity Fair noted that the strike gave the studios time to re-think their business model.
To a small degree, that seems to be true. Studios did become more careful about how much money they were spending on spec screenplays, but I’m not sure it’s because of the writer’s strike—I believe that was due to studio takeovers by large conglomerates.
These conglomerates brought a typical business mind-set into the studios, that was focused on limiting expenditure whilst, at the same time, maximizing profits.The profit angle came in the form of “The Harry Potter effect” (or “The Lord Of The Rings” effect if you prefer to call it that).
Studios were looking to minimize risk and after the success of the Harry Potter movies and The Lord Of The Rings franchise, movies that could be turned in franchises and sequels were seen as a sure thing. A guaranteed money-maker.
Studios were less willing to spend their money on spec screenplays (although they still did, but not to the same degree). Instead, they wanted to put their money into the Batmans, the Harry Potters, the Bourne franchise.
Then something changed. Maybe the studios changed. Maybe there was a limit to how much franchise material they could actually get their hands on, but around 2011, spec sales doubled on the previous year and are still on the increase.
I’m inclined to think that consumer demand played a part in this. I’m also inclined to believe that filmmaker’s weren’t content with the material they were given.
Demand for good movies and stories is, after all, inexhaustible. And as many filmmakers will tell you, a good idea can come from anywhere.
No one can really say why spec screenplay sales have been increasing so prolifically since 2011. But if I put my agent’s hat on and hazard a guess, I’d say it’s because of the consumer and because studios have come to the realization that they can pay relatively less money to purchase a spec screenplay and they can still make huge profits on these movies.
Whatever the reasons, it’s good news for screenwriters who want to sell their screenplays and it’s good news for the movie-going public.
*Jennifer Sloane has worked as a screenplay agent in Los Angeles and Nashville for the last five years. Jennifer loves good movies, music and animals. A former television and movie executive, Jennifer currently heads business development at Script Mailer (a company that connects screenwriters with agents and producers in Hollywood).